Saturday, November 13, 2004

geo-political prognostications 2004

So I actually predicted over a year ago that the economic recovery would kick in and the war in Iraq would be settled enough, such that Bush would win re-election. Unfortunately, I never wrote it down as proof.

So, now I may predictions for the next four years. People tend to see the war in Iraq too simplistically. Because victory was not easy, now they assume it is unwinnable. My feeling is that the truth is in the middle. Yes, post-war Iraq has been a mess, but it is not unwinnable.

My prediction is that Iraq will resolve much nicer than expected, the elections in January will be the beginning of stability, and while a shining example of democracy will not arise, something resembling democracy will take hold, providing a shred of hope in the middle east.

This will be strengthened by the Israel-Palestine conflict. The choice of Palestinian succession will be easier than expected, and the new leader will help take the first steps that finally resolves the generations long conflict.

These two successes will leave Bush’s legacy in the middle something that will be remembered in the history books.
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